As the curtain temporarily comes down on the Premier League, our tipster Jones Knows takes to the prediction chair and thinks Newcastle will thump Chelsea.
Manchester City vs Brentford, Saturday 12.30pm
Manchester City have won their last 16 home games in all competitions, scoring 61 goals. A home win it is. Boring. Move on.
With such a one-sided encounter anticipated my eyes have wandered elsewhere for a potential angle in. This game has the potential to fizzle out long before the whistle so the chances of a lack of cards certainly makes appeal. Both these teams rank very low for average cards per-90 with City bottom of the pile with 2.67 and Brentford are only just above them at 2.92 per-90.
A look at previous meetings between the teams also adds further fuel to the low card count argument as in both Premier League clashes last season no cards were shown. Brentford are happy to play in a low block away from home against the top teams so chances for the game to be stretched are low which in turn decreases the likelihood of cynical or reckless challenges.
A very generous 11/10 for under 30 booking points is on offer from Sky Bet meaning we’ll cop a return if there are two or fewer bookings in the match and no red cards. Those that like backing longer shots should snaffle up the 10/1 with Sky Bet on the game following the pattern of the last two meetings and producing zero cards. Since Pep Guardiola took charge, City have had eight Premier League home games vs ‘non-big-six’ teams where no cards have been shown. This could be the ninth.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: No cards shown (15/2 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Last weekend’s winners…
- Harvey Barnes to score & Leicester to win (15/2)
- Solly March to have three or more shots (3/1)
- Arsenal to win 1-0 (7/1)
- Under 2.5 goals in Chelsea vs Arsenal (10/11)
- Wins for Leicester, Man City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Leeds & Newcastle
Bournemouth vs Everton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
How much relevance should we put on Bournemouth’s 4-1 win over Everton in midweek? Little, I’d suggest. Frank Lampard can welcome back Conor Coady and James Tarkowski for this one and their importance to the defensive structure of this team is absolutely vital judging by the way Everton defended without them on Tuesday. The return of those two makes Everton a play in this one.
Losing their goalkeeper Neto to injury has had a huge effect on Bournemouth’s defensive output. Previously high-quality chances were being offered up but stopped by the Spanish stopper, but since Mark Travers has stepped in, Bournemouth are shipping goals at an alarming rate. Travers has just a 42.9 per cent save ratio in the Premier League this season from his seven starts. He has conceded more goals (24) than saves (18) in that period. That makes me edge towards a low-scoring Everton win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Liverpool vs Southampton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Sometimes it’s very easy to overcomplicate things in life. Keeping it simple is usually the most intelligent way of dealing with a conundrum and that is especially relevant in my line of work.
So, no awards for originality here but Mohamed Salah looks a fine bet to score at the prices available. Unlike other elite players this weekend, Salah should be at full throttle for Liverpool as he’s got the next six weeks off due to Egypt not qualifying for the World Cup. Southampton should be fearful as Salah looks sharp, arguably, the sharpest he’s looked since signing his new Anfield deal and he’s scored five goals in his last four appearances across all competitions.
Sky Bet’s offering of 7/2 on his first goalscorer price, the 10/11 on his anytime scorer prospects and even the 22/1 for a hat-trick should all be considered for those looking for a wager.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Mohamed Salah to score (10/11 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm
The City Ground is stepping up for Nottingham Forest. The home form for any promoted side is what to base a season of survival on and Forest are starting to build some momentum in front of the locals. It’s now four unbeaten at home in all competitions – an impressive run considering two of those sides were Liverpool and Tottenham. Steve Cooper has made them tougher to beat and game by game the attacking metrics are starting to improve with the likes of Morgan Gibbs-White and Jesse Lingard starting to grow in confidence.
This might be another opportunity for them to grab maximum points up against an inconsistent Palace side, who fully deserved their win at West Ham but performances like the one at Everton and Leicester still stick in my mind. In such situations like this where the draw is the biggest price in a tight game, play it.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Tottenham vs Leeds, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
How do we profit from Tottenham’s lethargy? Tired minds and limbs are restricting Spurs from being at full throttle, especially early on in games. Antonio Conte’s men have conceded first in each of their last seven games in all competitions and have gone 2-0 down in five of those. That is a reliable set of data considering fatigue and tiredness levels will still be high for the visit of a team capable of creating chaos and high-energy football.
Despite Leeds winning just once from six away games this season, their expected goals for data is very impressive and their 1.6 average per game is the highest of any team away from home in the Premier League. Jesse Marsch’s team play with little fear and should play their part in a potential goal-fest on Saturday and the visitors are taken to get a result.
Leeds to score first at 15/8 with Sky Bet and Leeds to be winning at half-time at 4/1 both stand out when assessing Spurs’ sleepy starts. However, with Dejan Kulusevski back to support Harry Kane, Spurs should certainly be capable of exploiting the space offered on the counter-attack by Leeds. Backing first-half goals is the angle of attack then as both teams have scored in 46 per cent of Leeds’ first halves this season. Over 1.5 first-half goals at 13/8 with Sky Bet is the desired play.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
West Ham vs Leicester, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Are the walls closing in on David Moyes as manager of West Ham? I’ve been positive regarding their performances this season as their underlying numbers are painting a better picture, especially in attack where they have scored 6.33 goals fewer than their expected goals output suggests – only Wolves have underperformed more in front of goal in the Premier League (6.85). But sometimes the data can only tell you part of the story. Overall, despite injecting new blood in the summer, performances are starting to go stale.
Against Palace last weekend was a case in point. West Ham’s expected goals return of 0.19 was the lowest at home produced by any side this season, and their lowest since the start of last season. They were booed off at full-time by the home fans and backed that up with another lacklustre showing in midweek in the defeat on penalties to Blackburn, who made 11 changes to their side and still managed to reach the last 16.
There is a feeling that perhaps Moyes has taken West Ham as far as he can.
And now they face a Leicester side, who have won four of their last five games in all competitions and are looking fluid and dangerous under Brendan Rodgers. Here we have a team that have scored in 30 of their last 31 away games – an extraordinary run for a team that have struggled over the past 18 months. With West Ham priced up as favourites in this one at 21/20 with Sky Bet, a pro-Leicester play is advised. I’m all over the Leicester double chance (to win or draw) at 8/11.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Leicester double chance (8/11 with Sky Bet – Bet Here!)
Newcastle vs Chelsea, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
The case for a Newcastle win is very easy to make here.
Eddie Howe’s men are the most likely winners according to the markets – who would have foreseen that at the start of the season? There is 13/10 with Sky Bet on offer for a home victory, which equates to a 44 per cent chance of this game ending in Newcastle’s favour. The Toon are unbeaten in their last nine Premier League games, winning six and have only lost two of their last 21 Premier League home games – the only defeats coming against Liverpool and Manchester City.
So, is that enough of a case to pull the trigger on a home win? When you factor in Chelsea’s current attacking metrics, that have them currently ranked as a mid-table side, then I’m firmly in the Newcastle home win camp at anything above Evens.
In the seven Premier League games Graham Potter has overseen, Chelsea have averaged a non-penalty expected goals tally of 0.95 per 90 minutes – that’s a disappointing return for a team that are being priced up as a top-four side. Without Kepa Arrizabalaga, Reece James, N’Golo Kante and Ben Chilwell, added to the possibilities of a host of key players like Thiago Silva and Mateo Kovacic having one eye on the World Cup, Chelsea’s season just might hit rock bottom at St James’ Park.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0
Wolves vs Arsenal, Saturday 7.45pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
The key conundrum here is how to get with Arsenal and get a bigger price than the 1/2 on offer with Sky Bet on the away win. Adding under goals is the way to get there.
The hectic schedule is making it tough for Arsenal to produce fireworks and high energy for longer periods in matches which is seeing the total goal count in their matches drop quite considerably. Over the first 11 games this season, Arsenal matches were averaging 3.5 goals per game. However, over the past nine matches, they’ve only managed to score more than two goals in one of those encounters – the 5-0 win over Nottingham Forest.
This should be another one of those ‘job done’ type of wins, so the Arsenal to win and under 3.5 goals selection at 5/4 with Sky Bet looks a play.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Brighton vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Assessing changes to how a team plays under a new manager can be profitable if noticing a new trend before the markets do. One area that interests me with Aston Villa is the much higher line Unai Emery is deciding to play with the defence which in turn is going to see opposition players caught offside at a higher rate than what has gone before.
During his spell in charge of Villarreal, Emery’s team ranked second in La Liga for catching teams offside and Aston Villa are going the same way looking at the first two fixtures he has overseen against Manchester United, who were caught offside 11 times with eight of those coming in the 4-2 at Old Trafford.
I’d expect the same approach at The Amex, so having a look at the player offsides markets for Brighton – in what should be an enjoyable game to watch – is an angle to consider. Solly March (Evens) and Leandro Trossard (6/4) are priced up pretty favourably for one or more offsides, but Kaoru Mitoma at 4/1 with Sky Bet – if he starts – is the player to concentrate on. Although he is yet to be caught offside this season, he does play very high up against the full-back and does make runs in behind.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Fulham vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
This game pulls down the curtain on the Premier League for six weeks and we may just go out with a bang in what should be an exciting encounter under the Craven Cottage lights. Marco Silva won’t be afraid of having a go up against United and that should lend itself to a goal heavy evening of action.
There has been an average of 3.43 goals scored in Fulham’s home matches this season and that includes a 0-0 with Everton. It’s a style of play that draws the opposition out and I’d be very interested in backing United attackers getting on the scoresheet. Fulham have the highest expected goals against record (25.99) in the Premier League this season despite five teams facing more shots than them. This points to high probability chances being offered up by Silva’s side.
In the hope that Erik ten Haag selects him, Alejandro Garnacho stands out at the 11/4 with Sky Bet being offered. The teenager absolutely ran riot in midweek in the win over Aston Villa and looks a special talent. A big 2023 awaits.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-3
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